Toyota Australia softens 2026 sales forecast despite bumper October

Toyota Australia appears to have softened its forecast of record fourth-quarter sales, despite its HiLux taking the top spot back from the Ford Ranger in October.

The HiLux helped Toyota to its best sales month of 2026 so far, accounting for 5954 of the brand’s 20,649 deliveries. Toyota sales were up by 4.7 per cent year over year, and its total was more than double next-best BYD’s 10,025 result and nearly triple third-placed Ford’s 7310.

However, October’s result fell below the monthly average needed to achieve the brand’s forecast of record sales in the final three months of the year, outlined by vice president of sales John Pappas at a media briefing last month.

“Based on where we are right now, and with the plans that we've got for the last quarter, we’ll be number one again this year for the 31st year in Australia,” Mr Pappas told media, including CarExpert, in October.

“The last quarter for us will be a record. The last time we did this type of volume in the last quarter was in 2020, and we’ll do more than what we did then. That was around 66,000 or thereabouts, so we’ll do more than that.”

When asked by CarExpert whether a record fourth quarter was still on the cards, a Toyota spokesperson this week issued a statement that stopped short of repeating the forecast.

“We are targeting a very strong fourth quarter sales for 2026,” the spokesperson said.

“The market is shifting rapidly but our customers continue to demand a broad range of vehicles that meet their needs and a large part of our strength comes from the increased supply that is now flowing through to our customers.”

That's less definitive than Mr Pappas’ comments in early October. However, the Toyota executive did say the brand’s sales were more dependent on vehicle supply than customer demand.

Toyota sold 66,179 vehicles in the final quarter of 2020. Following October’s result, it would need more than 45,530 sales across November and December – an average of more than 22,765 a month – to beat that record.

Mr Pappas had also said the brand expected to sell more than 220,000 vehicles for the full year, a downward revision from an earlier projection in July of more than 230,000 sales.

This would follow 239,863 sales last year, after Toyota set an all-time annual record of 241,296 in 2024.

October’s result makes achieving that full-year target harder, too.

With 152,944 vehicles sold to the end of September, Toyota needed another 67,056 sales in the final three months of 2026 to reach 220,000. That equates to an average of 22,352 each month, meaning October’s 20,649 fell 1703 short of that pace.

Toyota must now sell 46,407 vehicles across November and December to reach 220,000 – an average of approximately 23,204 a month.

The company last surpassed that monthly figure in May 2025, when it sold 23,576 vehicles, a result it hasn’t matched since.

In November and December 2025, Toyota sold 19,787 and 18,541 vehicles respectively, for a combined 38,328. Repeating that result over the next two months would leave the brand on 211,921 sales at the end of 2026.

Even in its record-setting 2024, Toyota managed 20,562 sales in November and 18,657 in December, for a total of 39,219. Repeating those figures would take its 2026 tally to 212,812.

“We’ve got our order banks still very, very healthy, and our order intake, fresh order intake, still going very, very strong,” Mr Pappas said last month.

“So, it's not really an issue of demand, it's actually an issue of getting the cars – logistics and getting the cars shipment-wise. Based on those constraints, we're very challenged by those types of numbers, but we’ll do over 220,000.”

In addition to the HiLux beating the Ranger in October, the Toyota LandCruiser Prado overtook the Ford Everest in year-to-date sales for the first time in 2026, taking the lead in the battle between the two off-road SUVs.

Toyota leads the market convincingly with 173,593 sales year-to-date, ahead of BYD’s 86,639 and Ford’s 68,414. It's on track to remain the top-selling brand for the 24th consecutive year – and for the 31st time in its 67 years on sale here.

While the HiLux has topped the sales charts on only one occasion this year, the Toyota RAV4 was the best-seller in both April and July 2026.

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