Toyota explains why its sales are down despite having a new RAV4 and HiLux

Toyota Australia says supply shortages affecting some of its best-selling models are behind its 2026 sales slump.

The Japanese giant has recorded 76,017 deliveries to the end of May, down 24.6 per cent on the same period last year. As a result, its total new-car market share has dropped from 20.7 per cent to 16.0 per cent.

Toyota Australia vice president of sales, marketing and franchise operations, John Pappas, says the slowdown was expected, with limited supply of the HiLux and RAV4 – its two top-selling models – dragging down its year-to-date result.

"When we were coming out of last year, we knew we were going to start this year on quite a decline versus where we were at the same time last year," explained Mr Pappas.

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"We didn't have a full HiLux production run in the first quarter of this year. Then we were going to launch the new RAV4 in August last year, but for various reasons we had to delay the launch to April 2026.

"They're our two best-selling models, so we knew that the first quarter, and even May, we were going to be down majorly because of those two vehicle lines, and that's exactly what's happened. So this is not news to us.

"This has predominantly been a production and stock related issue."

For context, RAV4 sales are down 47.1 per cent year-to-date, while HiLux deliveries have fallen by 13.2 per cent.

Despite a slow start to the year, Toyota Australia still expects to hit 230,000 deliveries by the end of 2026, which would leave it 4.1 per cent down on last year’s result.

"We have a very big six months ahead of us in order to be able to get ready for us to deliver a 230,000 final result," explained Mr Pappas.

"It will be an all-time record in a six-month window for us."

To achieve that, the automaker’s local arm has secured two additional shipments totalling 30,000 vehicles, bolstering supply to match high demand that has contributed to wait times ranging from three to six months for its top-selling models.

"We don't determine global production," said Mr Pappas.

"We're obviously trying to get our allocation, and we've been communicating to our TMC (Toyota Motor Corporation) colleagues over in Japan about our wait times, trying to make sure that we can clearly demonstrate our demand level in order to try to catch up from a production point of view."

"TMC has been able to support us with extra production for Australia... but it's hard for TMC to be able to cater for all the demand globally."

Beyond this year, Toyota expects sales to stabilise in 2027, as it continues to weather pressure from Chinese challenger brands and wider industry headwinds.

“I expect next year, we will continue to have very sustainable volume, and our plan is always to have growth,” concluded Mr Pappas.

Toyota has been at the top of the Australian sales charts every year since 2003, and in 2024 it set an all-time sales record of 241,296 vehicles – more than double the volume of second-placed Ford. 

Globally, Toyota has reduced its production targets due to conflict in the Middle East, which has resulted in higher fuel prices and weaker demand for its vehicles.

Business news outlet Nikkei Asia reported in May that Toyota has told suppliers it will be cutting production output by approximately 83,000 vehicles by November, predominantly affecting Middle Eastern markets.

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